From the looks of the ‘goals for’ column in the Championship, Blackpool are still a team who like to entertain. How are things shaping up defensively?

Defensively we are ok. We are playing against a poorer standard of attacking football each week so the challenge is less difficult. We can still be picked apart by any diligent team. We still play a high defensive line, so direct passes from the middle third can catch us
out. The channel between right back and centre back is still worth probing to test our positioning and concentration. If anything our balance in the team has changed ever so slightly. At times last season we’d attack with 8 and defend with 2, but this season, more often that not we are 4 to 6 in favour of attack. It’s likely that we will line up with two young centre backs at Goodison and whilst they show great promise they are still learning to play with each other.

System wise, in our meetings at home and away last season it was predominantly 4-3-3 from Holloway. Is this still the case?

The formation has tended to move towards a 4-2-3-1 from the 4-3-3, but the four players in attack are ultra attacking and it really tends to
look more like a 4-2-4. When that happens we can dominate teams with relentless pressure, however, it can be easy for a gap of 10 to 15
yards to develop between midfield and attack and if a team can force the team to divide Blackpool can be dominated in the middle. The 4-3-3 still comes out and arguably the flatter shape in midfield lends itself to some of our better performances this season.

Last season the diagonal ball was one of your key attacking weapons. Has your offensive strategy changed in the Championship?

It still happens, but with less accuracy and frequency. Ian Holloway has openly admitted that he wants his team to pass more and more and manipulate the ball around the pitch. A team being alert to the long diagonal could set up well for second balls and reclaim possession quite easily. Offensively we are still as aggressive and the kitchen sink is fully installed at Bloomfield Road. Away from home we still seek to dominate possession, but we are more suited to counter given the pace we have in attack.

The gap between Charlie Adam’s teeth was a large one to fill. Who has supplemented this creative void?

Arguably no one has filled it and that has possibly given Blackpool a number of problems. Elliot Grandin had the ability on the ball to be devastating, but he has now returned to France for personal reasons. The loss of Adam has probably led to the move towards the more aggressive approach of playing four forwards in the 4-2-3-1. The balance of the team as well as the creativity hasn’t been dealt with. Gary Taylor-Fletcher is very clever on the ball and can create excellently around the box, but the signing of John Fleck may help to
fill that void. He has yet to string games together, but he has an excellent passing range, aggressive attitude and ability to get a shot off early. Should he start against Everton then Moyes will be well aware of his threat and would be wise to hassle him early on before he
can settle in to a rhythm.

People will be familiar with Kevin Phillips but less so with his namesake Matthew Phillips, who has bagged 3 hatricks already this season. What can we expect from him?

Let him turn and give him five or ten yards and he will hurt most defences. He can score and create from anywhere in the final third. He is still refining his game, but his strengths will see him reach the top echelons of the Premier League if he continues on his current trajectory. If he starts, he will line up in the wide left forward position and seek to cut inside to get his shot away. Very few players
will beat him for pace, he is strong and tricky also. However, get tight to him, stop him from turning and he has little in his skill set to be able to effectively turn and beat a man. Likely that he’ll lay the ball off and move in to space. However, his movement off the ball
is still developing and more often than not in those circumstances he can take himself out of the game.

Can we expect a full strength line up from Holloway or is the promotion push likely to compromise his selection?

Who knows what Holloway’s full strength line up looks like? He is so hard to call in respect to his selection. He loves a good bit of trial and error.

How has the Premiership cash cow positively impacted Blackpool?

Finances are virtually an impenetrable subject at Bloomfield Road. Karl Oyston assures fans that the future of the club is secure and there’s little doubt about that. The legacy elements mooted when we were in the Premier League i.e. new training ground have yet to materialise. However, our transfer policy continues to frustrate, even if it may be built on sound business logic. Quietly the money has been spent wisely up to now, securing new contracts for established players, bringing in quality like Barry Ferguson and Kevin Phillips. However, most importantly we are in a strong negotiating position should clubs come looking at our players as we don’t need to sell in order to get the cash. Hence the way the approaches from Bolton and Cardiff were handled in January when they made bids for Matthew
Phillips.

Given our recent upturn in form, how do you see Blackpool hurting us?

That’s a tough one. We can break very quickly so he may set up to counter at speed. If Baines advances Holloway’s use of wide forwards staying high may seek to exploit that. If Holloway starts with Barry Ferguson, Chris Basham and Ludo Sylvestre then we will likely try to control large parts of possession and perhaps we can pull Everton out of shape before trying to get Matt Phillips or LuaLua behind the defence.

Who would you say is Blackpool’s weak link that we could exploit?

Not a weak link per se, but applying pressure to Barry Ferguson would serve to hamper our passing rhythm as well as allowing you to win the ball high up the pitch. Again, LuaLua can be wasteful in possession, he’s very much a low percentage footballer. He can inspire, but making plans to pressure him and cut out his passing angles and Blackpool’s creativity will suffer.

Score prediction?

Everton 4-2 Blackpool

Mr Bong is away for the weekend so will be unable to deliver any post match analysis.  If your looking for some tactical deconstruction I’d recommend you check out the Tangerine Dreaming site for their unbiased astute thoughts on the cup tie.

1. Cech Distribution

Part of the game plan when out of possession was to stop Chelsea playing out from the back. Cech’s obviously a top class keeper but if he has a weakness its distribution. Straq has his limitations as a player but in terms of effort and sheer belligerence it’d be difficult to think of any player in modern times who shows as much of these qualities as the Argentine. He is circled below cutting off the angle for the pass to Cole – a ball Chelsea use a fair bit to compensate for Cech’s shortcomings on the ball. With this option closed off and Cahill positioned to cut off a central ball, Cech goes long – and straight to Donovan. In total Cech made 22 long balls, with just 13 finding an opponent. He averages 6 per game usually.

2.Bainaar

The Baines-Pienaar axis have picked up were they left off 12 months ago and gave Chelsea problems throughout with some signature Bainaar manoeuvres.  Bosingwa – a player much better offensively – had a torrid time yesterday although in fairness he wasn’t afforded much support down the right flank from Sturridge or any of Chelsea’s midfield trio. Firstly, his poor throw was intercepted by Pienaar and then he was caught ball watching in the same move as Pienaar ghosted into the 18 yard box to control and slam a half volley into Cech’s net.  The duo were at the heart of all that was good for the Blues yesterday both in terms of defence and attack.

 3. Counter Attack

Chelsea’s use of a high defensive line was mentioned in the preview and was evident yesterday. With Pienaar and Donovan though we have more options for counter attack than at the start of the campaign. The pair made a combined 6 dribbles and their ability to break quickly at pace was very useful against a Chelsea side looking to squeeze play further up field.  A mention should also go to Jonny Heitinga, who enabled us to turn defensive situations into attacking ones seamlessly with long deliveries to the 2 creative men on  the flanks, averaging 70% success from his diagonals. Donovan has 93 assists in his time in the MLS and his incredibly productive loan spell continued here when the US star capitalised on Neville’s reducer on Ashley Cole to roll in the Straq for the clincher. It was Donovan’s 9^th assist from the 17 domestic games he has played for us over his 2 loan spells.

 4. The Wall

Our 3 midfielders Cahill, Fellaini and Gibson provided a superb screen for the defence. Their average position (left) shows the 3 in close proximity. In total the trio made 6 interceptions, 8 clearances and 10 tackles to frustrate Chelsea. Our visitor’s strength is playing through teams but our solidity through the centre pushed them outside as they made a whopping 33 crosses. Regular readers of the blog will be aware that this is a favoured defensive tactic of DM against sides with limited aerial threat… allowing the opposition to whip the ball in whilst we flood the 18 yard box . Mata – the leagues most creative player – tried 8 crosses with none reaching a colleague. The below screenshot shows a typical Chelsea offensive situation with our midfield trio positioned well to push Chelsea out wide.

5. Final Thought

This was a really well deserved win for the Blues and leaves us in good shape heading into the crucial final third of the season. In a nutshell, the new boys have given us the brains to compliment the brawn we have in abundance at the club. We are now unbeaten in 6 and 3 points better off than this stage last season.

1.Last time out

The reverse fixture at the Bridge witnessed a pretty dire game from a toffee perspective as a combination of Mata’s brilliance and some shite defending cost us dear. Chelsea’s aggressive high line and pressing penned us deep into our own half for the most part with our slow build up play from the back constantly exposed. Our right side was particularly dodgy with all 3 goals sourced from this flank as Coleman and Hibbert had an evening to forget.

2.Strengths

Chelsea’s offensive make up is certainly their key strength. Mata is the main positive to come out of the AVB revolution and he showed at the Bridge earlier this season the damage he could do as he ripped us apart. Unsurprisingly, the former Valencia man is statistically the most creative player in the league as shown in the table (left).

Whilst Torres can’t buy a goal at the moment his moody mate Sturridge – one of the most direct players in the league- certainly can. The forward has slotted in his last 2 against us for Bolton and Chelsea and he is their top scorer with 9. Chelsea average 18.1 shots per game on their travels which is the highest in the division.

3.Weaknesses

Defensive frailties have undermined their attempts to put more pressure on the top 3. Initially the problem appeared Terry’s inability to adapt to a higher defensive line that had been used in previous regimes. The line looks to have been tweaked given that Chelsea caught opponents offside on average 1.5 times in their last 6 games – less than half the  figure of their first 6 games (3.3) which is  indicative of a deeper defensive line. Neither Terry or Cole are any longer in their prime and when you factor in that Bosingwa/Luiz are both better on the ball then defending of it you have problems.

I’d fancy us to get a goal from a cross. Baines looked more threatening last week than at any stage of the season with Pienaar affording him more space to scheme. Donovan has also assisted 5 in 8 games and has great delivery from wide areas. Whoever starts in the 2 forward positions for us (presumably Cahill + Straq/Victor/Jelavich) there is a significant aerial threat from crosses to harm Chelsea. Luiz aerially has only won 58% of his battles so is susceptible if we can get the right quality into the box.

4.Selection/Tactics

In defence, Luiz and either Ivanovic or Cahill will partner each other at the back. Chelsea’s shape will be 4-2-3-1 ish – the average position chart (left) shows their positioning last week with the red circles defensive mids and the yellow attacking mids. Perennial slotter against us Frank Lampard would appear ‘set’ to return – which is a shame –  however our visitors have other problems with Ramires, Drogba and Terry all out. Mata should play more centrally with Malouda wide left and Sturridge the reluctant right sided forward. The much maligned Torres will start through the middle. On the subject of the former Kop darling turned figure of hate, he is clearly struggling for confidence. After witnessing him manically run 20 yards to close down a defender last week I’d argue that he seems to have regressed to the mindset an English striker – Brian Deane for example – and is a shadow of the player who used to conserve his energy for short bursts onto opposing keepers.
5. Strategy

AVB has chopped and changed things tactically throughout the campaign. The high defensive line has been modified but is still relatively high (like ourselves at home) which keeps opponents at arms length and reduces the shots conceded as shown in the chart (left). Chelsea will look to press and be aggressive in their work when we are on the ball so we will need to be quicker and more fluid in possession than we were at the JJB last week.  Whilst  the high line/ pressing combination is effective in gaining territorial dominance it can leave you exposed in behind and with Donovan, Drenthe and Anichebe all potentially figuring at some stage we have decent options for fast break situations. When playing counter attacking situations themselves, Chelsea have players like Luiz who can ping a long diagonal and turn defence into attack in an instant as Newcastle discovered to their cost when Sturridge had a field day. His own battle against Baines at both ends of the pitch could be pivotal.

Predicted Everton Line up: 4-4-1-1 Howard, Neville, Baines, Distin, Heitinga, Gibson, Fellaini, Donovan, Pienaar, Cahill, Anichebe

Prediction: Everton 1 Chelsea 1

Bet: Chelsea H/T Draw F/T

1.Wigan Wingbacks

Wigan played with 3 centre backs with their wingbacks providing the width down the flanks. The image (left) of their average positions show the centre backs (red) and wingbacks (yellow). The Latic’s kept a pretty high line leading to us being caught offside with great regularity. Their attacks were focused most down the left flank with Beausejour as left wing back  Wigan’s most potent player – creating 2 chances – 1 of which leading to the calamitous second half opener for the Latics.

2.Aerial Trouble

As noted in the preview, Wigan have a weakness in the air with only Swansea winning fewer aerial duels per game. Despite this, they won 69% of the aerial duels against us yesterday. Sadly, when we did play more direct balls the accuracy wasn’t great (just 36% accuracy) and the longer balls were directed too close to Caldwell, a player who has limitations on the deck but is Wigan’s best header. As a result of this, Caldwell won 100% of his headers (11 out of 11). The decision to push our best header (Fellaini) further forward following Cahill’s injury was probably done to improve our ability to hold up the ball in the final third. Stracqualursi was very good on the ball (92% pass completion 2^nd only to Gibson on 93%) but the Argentine lost all of his aerial duels.

3. Pienaar is still Ace

The South Afircan schemer played like he had never been away and his link up play with Baines – a feature of our play down the years – was class throughout. The below image is an example of the dynamic with Pienaar (circled) cutting inside taking his marker with him, enabling Baines to steam up the line.

We didn’t produce much but between them the pair crafted 6 of the 7 chances we created. Pienaar ‘s pass completion was 89% – comfortably above our team average – and in the process made 70 touches, second only to Fellaini (100)

 4. Lack of Incision

Whilst our play outside the box was OK, we found it difficult to work the ball into the box. The chalkboard (left) shows our passes completed with only a few balls played successfully into the Wigan 18 yard box in the 90minutes. As noted in previous posts, we tend to score most of our goals later on in games with 46%  coming in the last 15 minutes of games. Anichebe’s  headed finish from a delicious Baines delivery made the Nigerian our top scorer with 4 goals despite limited game time this season.

5.Final thought

Wigan’s goal sprung us into action and we really need to be more proactive; we have conceded first in 62% of games this season with just 1 first half goal in our last 13 league games. We need to attack teams from the off rather than being reactive. It wasn’t a great display by us on a shocking pitch and a draw was a fair result on the balance of play. Beating the league’s top side and then failing to beat the league’s bottom side in one week pretty much encapsulates life as an Evertonian.

1.Man City Victory

 Defensive Approach

The victory over City was very much a triumph for grit and determination. City made more than double the amount of passes as we did (660 v 310) and posted a significantly higher pass completion ( 85% v 68%) which resulted in an overall 68% swell of the ball, yet created little. We worked incredibly hard off the ball; making 17 interceptions with notable mentions for the heroic Heitinga and Hibbert who jointly made 22 clearances. The defensive duo were sublime; whereas many opposition centre backs this season have been caught following City strikers away from goal and thus enabling space for midfielders like Silva to exploit, the duo held their positions superbly as shown below with great support by the midfield.

Despite their obvious quality and having a lot of the ball, City failed to penetrate our backline into any clear cut chances. The protection afforded to Tim Howard this season has been constant with only Liverpool having conceded fewer shots on target in the league this season (80) … 1 less than us (81).

One of the key battles was snuffing the incisive Silva. Last time out Moyes used Rodwell man to man but this time there was no one player deployed – instead the midfield 5 took it in terms to pick him up, playing deep and compact making it difficult for Silva or his midfield colleagues to play through us with only 1 of City’s 7 through balls penetrating.  City were increasingly frustrated – Silva is class in the final third at threaded passes but they maybe lack a Modric type player who can ping passes from deep as neither of their centre mids or centre backs are great at distributing. Unable to go through us, City sent on Kolorov and looked to use crosses to get the ball into the box quicker. They usually make 19 crosses per game but made a huge 34 against us as we pushed them out to the flanks were they are less potent.

Attacking Strategy

When we didn’t have the ball we were compact and tight, and when we got the ball we made the pitch big, attacking down the flanks with pace through Drenthe and Donovan who gave width and pace. We did well to win the ball back in City’s half by narrowing angles and hassling City’s defenders – notably Lescott who whilst being a good defender has a weakness in distribution. Below shows 3 players hassling him and eventually winning the ball back.

The goal was a really well worked effort with Drenthe’s dribble and subsequent speedy burst away from  Gareth Barry reminiscent of the City slouch during his calamitous World Cup experience against Germany in 2010. Drenthe combined with Baines whose cross found Donovan who laid on his 5^th assist in 7 games for Gibson who rocketed in his first Blue goal following a deflection of the hapless Barry.

Mancini’s after match comments –designed specifically to take attention away from the players – should not be interpreted as him thinking of us as a soft touch. Why would he? After all we have beaten them 5 times in 6 since he took over and City’s focus is clearly on securing the title. This was a well deserved victory and was reminiscent of all that has been good with Everton in the Moyes era.

 2. Jelavic

Some quick thoughts on our new striker…..Technique wise, NJ is accomplished on the ball with a decent range of passing and he possesses good vision with 12 assists in 2 seasons.  Moyes is always looking for a target man who can hold up the ball and enable time for attacking midfielders to get forward – hence the decision to get rid of Beckford and the loan acquisition of the less talented but harder working Stracqualursi. NJ’s physical build and good first touch means we get this. NJ possesses a decent goal scoring record with a 48% shooting accuracy during his time at Ibrox resulting in him easily achieving the benchmark 1 in 2 ratio strikers look to achieve. From looking at some of the VT he scores a decent variety of goals but service will be crucial.  His physicality is good in terms of hold up play but less so in terms of speed and ability to get in behind defences. The way we play though isn’t usually setup for counter attack so perhaps this isn’t a big deal. His work rate is good though and he will give opposing defences more to think about than the departed Saha. The overall verdict would be that he is a good buy with more quality than Straq and Cahill, better work rate than Saha and a bigger goal threat than all 3 he improves the squad for sure.

 3. Saha

Louis Saha will not be missed by many fans but I feel he has given decent value to the club during his time at L4.He of course registered the quickest Cup Final goal in history and also crucially got the ¼ final winner against Boro the same year. Overall, he registered a 1 in 3 ratio in his time at the club which for a player who cost nothing in a transfer fee isn’t too bad.  However, in the last 18 months his impact has become increasingly minimal. Whereas with Cahill you get application and general snide behaviour to unsettle opponents when he isn’t scoring, with Saha you don’t get much apart from goals,  with no assists in 2 seasons. Just because Saha won’t chase opponents like the admirable Straq did in the City win doesn’t however mean he doesn’t have good movement or commitment; sometimes it’s best for strikers to save energy for short sharp bursts rather than running themselves into the ground. With just 1 goal from 50 shots this season though he has look of a player who is on the way out at this level and a move was probably in the best interests of both parties.

4. The Return of Stevie P

The final piece of business to be completed by the Toffees was the return of a former favourite and one of the best players I’ve seen play for the club, Steven Pienaar. Criminally underused by Diry Arry  – failing to complete a single 90 minutes once for Tottenham in the top flight after doing so in 38 of his last 48 Everton games – The South African should be warmly received at L4. His passing stats and chances created figures from his first spell are a big improvement on our existing wide-men so, like Jelavic, he improves our options.

The big beneficiary of course will be Leighton Baines and, to a lesser extent, Tim Cahill . In the 3-4 season’s LB/SP played together they amassed a whopping 50+ assists between them with Pienaar’s quick darts inside dragging his fullback and enabling Baines the freedom of the flank to get in deliveries – usually for Cahill (circled) to dispatch a feature of our play (as shown above). Whilst Pienaar is effective on the right or through the middle, he must start wide left to reinvigorate Baines who has had 9 left sided midfield partners already this season and needs the consistency of his old mate Pienaar to bring the best out of him. With his creativity and Gibson’s goals, we certainly have more of potency in the midfield ranks than pre transfer window.

5.  And finally…..Wigan Preview

Saturday sees us visit the JJB for a clash with Roberto Martinez and his Wigan side who currently prop up the table. Unsurprisingly for a team in their position, the Latics have the worst home record, defensive record and goals scored record in the top flight and this would appear an ideal opportunity for us to secure back to back wins and build momentum.

In terms of players to watch, Victor Moses is pretty much like for like for their former maverick Charles N’Zogbia and although his end product has been minimal, he has the raw materials to become a superb player.  He has made the most dribbles this season (64) but is the  4^th most disposed (58) player in the league. The Latics attack predominantly down the left although fullback Stam (circled 23 from recent avg position chart) is a decent attacking fullback and will provide great width so Baines will need to be aware of his forays forward. Wigan like to shoot from long range with 56% of their efforts coming from outside the box – the highest % in the top flight.

Whilst they have only scored 3 fewer than us, Wigan’s back line is incredibly shaky and Gary Caldwell is undeniably the weak link. Wigan have given away the most (8) penalties this season & Gary Caldwell the most by a player (4). The clumsy grafter has a dire disciplinary record because of this with 7 yellow 1 red card so far, with Wigan making more fouls per game than any side – with players like Drenthe and Donovan running at pace we can surely get some joy here. Wigan have a weakness aerially with only Swansea having won fewer headed duels than Wigan. In terms of selection, after his superb shift against City, I’d expect Straq to retain his slot, with Jelavic starting from the bench, probably along with Pienaar.

Assists have always been in the game, it’s an essential part of scoring a goal, however, around the mid-nineties they started to be classified and assigned to players and ever since a fascination has grown up around them. They are now a popular benchmark for a player’s attacking potency. Let’s be clear though, this didn’t become important then, it was already important, we just didn’t have the data and we probably called them ‘set ups’ or something akin to that. Today you can peruse all kinds of data about the game, but for many, the rise of football data as we know it began to form in the public consciousness with the addition of the assist in the mid-nineties.

Where is this all leading to? Well, this article will explore a little more about the assist, but more importantly explore what we don’t see. We know players assist goals, but not every goal is actually assigned an assist. It’s important to know who is assisting a goal for a team as you can potentially target the most creative players in a team that way.

Another way to view an assist is to call it a goal source of which it’s one of many. The reason for this is that it’s important to acknowledge that goals do come from other sources. It is this concept of ‘goal sources’ which will be explored here. Why explore it? Well, it’s tapping in to the unknown and it may or may not allow us to understand more about the game and the teams which participate in the English Premier League.

The data used here has come directly from Opta and whoscored.com on the 20^th January after all clubs had completed twenty one games in the English Premier League. At this stage, the time of the season hasn’t been factored in; however, it’s acknowledged that during a full season these figures may level out or change in some other unspecified way. There may also be other ways to explain this which may render this article inert.

Up to date there have been 588 goals scored and 401 have been credited with an assist to an attacking player. This means that there are 187 goals scored where an attacking player hasn’t been credited with an assist which equates to 32% of the goals scored in the Premier League this season.

This appears to be a fairly significant chunk of the goals scored and leaves a void in the sources of goals when trying to understand where they come from. We know that David Silva has made 10 assists for Manchester City, but something or someone else is also creating goals without it being entirely visible. Before further allowances are made with the data, a swift table has been put together below so that you can look at the teams, their goals, number of assists and percentage of goals credited with an assist. They are ranked according to total number of assists.

What you see immediately is what you’d expect to see. Those teams with the most assists are the ‘better’ teams such as Manchester City and Manchester United, however, venture further down and you start seeing that teams are jumble up a little and the likes of Blackburn jump up the table due to the number of goals they’ve scored. The table below is instead ranked on the percentage of goals that are credited with an assist. Now look what happens.

Here you can see that Chelsea and Arsenal have pushed the Manchester clubs off the top and more interestingly Stoke City jump up the table. This ranking is determined as that which shows the percentage of goals which that team has assisted. The higher the figure the less scope there is for other factors to be the source of their goals, whilst the teams at the bottom of the table have greater shares of their goals coming from sources other than directly from their own players. However, before marching headlong in to a sticky mess it might be time to just check a few things, namely the definition of an assist, as the perceptive reader will have already ‘cottoned on’ to some details that are missing.

Opta have kindly provided data for this article and are also responsible for the dataset over at whoscored.com so it’s important to understand how they define an assist as this could potentially shape the outcomes of this article.

“The final pass or pass-cum-shot leading to the recipient of the ball scoring a goal.”

It can be assumed since we don’t see otherwise that only the attacking team are ever credited with an assist. It could also be assumed that penalties wouldn’t accrue an assist credit for an attacking player. There are other reasons that may lead to the attacking team not being credited and here’s a little run down of why that might be.

• The team may have scored direct from a free kick
• A rebound
• A misplaced pass from an opponent
• A goal created by the scorer.

These may not be exhaustive, so it would be dangerous to make too many sweeping judgements without understanding them all fully. What can be said is that the figures in the tables above should be levelled out a little to take in to account those goals that couldn’t have been assisted such as own goals, penalties and goals direct from free kicks. The table below does exactly that and then ranks the team based on their assist (net assist) percentage.

The first thing to note is that the number of goals has been reduced to a net figure taking in to account only those goals where an assist could be assigned to an attacking player. In total there are 504 net goals, once own goals, penalties and goals from direct free kicks have been removed. This leaves a shortfall of 103 goals that have not been credited and therefore come from other sources.

When looking at the ranking above Arsenal retain their position as the club with the highest percentage of goals coming from their own players, but surprisingly Stoke City jump up to second place who like Arsenal have only have one goal scored where the source cannot be accounted for. At the bottom of the table reside Wigan who’ve assisted only half of their goals this season and ‘other sources’ have assisted the other half of their goals scored. This leads on to the final table which lists the number of goals each team has scored from ‘other sources’, called unassisted goals.

What you can see now is that Wolves have had the most goals from other sources, followed by Manchester City. However, the latter have a high assisted goal percentage due to their league high of goals scored. Then there’s a batch of teams with seven goals including Spurs and Norwich City. On average each team have scored five goals this season without the source being credited to their player. In total, 18% of goals scored in the English Premier League have come from other unspecified sources.

In terms of the game in general, this may have some significance or it may have none at all. There may well be a major oversight here and these goals from other sources are easily identified and explained. However, it appears that they remain unseen, people focus on the headline, the David Silva assist count and marvel at his creative abilities. The same for other players who’ve assisted goals, however, in truth the attacking team may have scored the goal but haven’t been responsible for the creation of the goal. Potentially, this may have implications when viewing a team and the way that they score their goals.

The upshot of this is that if a team isn’t responsible for their goals, then who or what is?

Could this be an indication of a team’s luck i.e. rebounding shots in to the path of a player who scores, a misplaced pass from the opposition. A team may in effect force these situations and look to seize upon opposition errors or it may be a case of their opposition having poor performances contributing to their own downfall.

What it perhaps suggests is that those teams who have the most assists as a percentage of their goals may be those teams that control their own outcomes better than others? It’s interesting to see that the two teams at the top of the assist percentage ranking are Arsenal and Stoke. These two are often cited as polar opposites in terms of playing style; however, they may be closer in their approaches than first appears. Arsenal have the accusation (unfairly you may say) that they try to walk the ball in to the net, whilst Stoke are accused (unfairly you may say) of being route one long ball merchants. However, these are their ways of giving them the control over their scoring opportunities, Arsenal want to pass the ball till the optimum moment of scoring a goal presents itself, whilst Stoke are doing just the same. Each approach is configured to their players, their style.

At the other end of the table is Wigan Athletic and applying the same logic to them as with the teams at the top of the assist percentage table then they are the team with less control over their destiny. Only 50% of their goals scored come from their own players, perhaps they press the opposition high up the pitch and steal the ball before scoring, perhaps they pounce on more bobbles off legs of opposing defenders. Whatever the source of their goals, they are some way away from being self sufficient. Should they intercept before goals then there’s clearly a strategic reason for this, but should the ‘rub of the green’ be putting the ball to their goal scorers then they are riding on the crest of a wave that will crash. When it crashes they will need to start creating more goals or the goals will dry up.

All of the above may also apply to those other teams at the bottom such as Wolves. What is surprising is that a team such as Blackburn who are fourth from bottom of the league table rank tenth in assisted goal percentage. Their defence may be holding them back in winning games perhaps, but perhaps they are more in control of what they are doing when trying to score. Perhaps this may be an indicator that things may turn around for them sooner or later or perhaps it is not.

Hopefully this has been enlightening and allows a better awareness of goal sources. However, before rounding up this article here’s a small point to note. Should a team be in receipt of goals given to them by the opposition then perhaps it might be interesting to see which players are responsible for those errors and for those to become public knowledge. Everyone who watches football will be aware of players committing gaffes but how many do certain players commit each season and how do they compare as a goal source to the top assisting players?

In conclusion, the only way to round this up is to just state that it’s important to try and understand the unseen elements of football, yes assists are a good indicator of where goals come from, but they aren’t the be all and end all. Perhaps there is some truth in clubs being in control of their destiny and this gives and insight in to how to understand that, perhaps not. Perhaps there’s a perfectly reasonable explanation for all of this. Certainly you could note down every instance that created a goal and share that. Perhaps that is what needs to be done; it would certainly make for interesting reading. Should you have your own thoughts on this subject feel free to comment below and if you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading.

Special thanks must go to Opta for providing the critical pieces of data which plugged some gaps and to whoscored.com who have made tons of statistics available to browse on their excellent website.

This post was written by Tangerine Dreaming. You can follow him on Twitter via @Tanger_Dreaming or visit his website tangerinedreaming.com.

Going forward

Drenthe is clearly a talent going forward – his explosive pace, ability to dribble and ferocious shot are characteristics we generally lack in our squad’s complexion…..

In terms of wide deliveries, Donovan (36%) makes the most successful cross  with Baines in second with 27% and Drenthe coming in with 26%. His playing style is very direct and he will look to shoot more than any of his midfield colleagues – averaging just over 2 shots per game.

As the table (left) shows RD has racked up a fair few assists considering the limited game time he has had since moving from Madrid. He is our most prolific dribbler and responsible for almost a 5^th of the entire squad’s dribbles (17%).  The other quality he brings to the table is winning useful free kicks – he is fouled every 25mins – comfortably the most of any of his wing colleagues due largely to his quick feet, pace and ability to commit fullbacks. Thus far he has won 1 penalty whilst 2 cert pens at Spurs and Liverpool were not given. Probably the most blatant stat about his importance to us going forward is that with him in the side we score a goal every 58 minutes whilst without him it takes us 135 minutes to score.

Drenthe in defence…

Moyes expects all players to ‘put in a shift’ and Royston – a left back as a youth – is no exception. Statistically we ship more goals with him on the pitch – conceding every 63 minutes when he is playing compared to every 89 mins when he is not on the pitch.

“What we want are players who can make a difference, we want them to entertain but for the right reasons. There will be periods in the game when the defensive side of things is not the biggest part of Roy’s game.  But we had to get back into this game and it was the time for Roy to be most effective. Sometimes in the Premier League, the harder side of it is the defending. You are away from home, you have got to dig and keep in the game.”

 Moyes after the Norwich draw – December 2011

Moyes anxieties are probably down to the fact that Royston polls the lowest for making interceptions whilst polls the highest for making fouls and being dispossessed in the below chart.

His sending off at home to Chelsea and sloppy play at Eastlands which led to City’s clincher are examples of his rash play.  Moyes has implied that his qualities are better suited to playing home games rather than away due to the above but Drenthe has actually played more minutes away from home than at home and has more assists and as many goals away from Goodison Park.

Conclusion

Although he is on a bosman there is no such thing as free transfer really . On his considerable wages on a 5 year deal we would be looking at an investment of around £17m – a sizeable amount given our precarious financial situation. If we can afford it though we simply must make it happen. The qualities he has simply can’t be taught whilst the small issues with his defensive play can be worked on. In a season which has been dire he is one of the few players who does provide genuine class and a buzz when he gets on the ball. Overall Verdict ? Sign him up!

1.Slow Starters

As the table (left) shows, we have had major problems starting games well which has led to us conceding first in 66% of our games this season with no first half goal in our last 10 league games.

2. …..But strong finishers

One thing we have got right this season is playing to the final whistle – testament to the fitness and focus of the squad. The Blues have won more points (11) in the final 10mins of games than any other side in the league.  A whopping 76% of our goals have come in the second half – the most in the top flight. This is due largely due to Moyes substitutions with 33% of our goals being scored by  subs – again a league high.

3. Reliance on crossing

Baines has put in more deliveries than any player in the top flight. Crossing  is something of an imprecise art with completion figures always low in comparison to usual passing data. Baines has made 48 successful crosses from 171– a 28% accuracy rate…his assist ratio is way down though –  just 1 compared to the 11 he made last season. Our friends from across the park make more crosses per game than any side in the top flight as shown in the passing table further down the article.

4. Missing the Cutting Edge

 The Stoke game was perhaps the best example of this lack of cutting edge as we had 67% of the ball but failed to register a single shot on target. There is an over reliance on Royston Drenthe who is comfortably our most incisive player from open play with 5 assists from just 6 starts. Out of the 10 home games we have lost five– RD made just 1 sub appearance in those 5 games. Of the other 5 he has featured we haven’t lost and he has chipped in with  2 goals and 1 assist.

Leon Osman is our highest ranked player in the division for through balls per game but is way down in 63^rd position with just 2 all season. David Silva (13) polled the highest. Rodwell is statistically our best passer;  ranked 19^th in the top flight for retention with 88% but with 0 through balls.

5.Conversion Issues

 As the above table shows our conversion of 7% of chances to goals is below the league average of 10%. Wigan and Liverpool have the joint worst figures here with 6.3%. Saha is our highest ranked player in the division in terms of shots per game with 50 shots in total yielding just 1 goal.

6.Problems with counter attacking

For the most part, with Drenthe and Coleman missing we have had no pace in the final third. We also lack somebody in the middle of the park who can turn defensive situations into attacking ones with long diagonal passes – e.g. Modric registers the 6th highest long balls per game in the top flight having successfully delivered 146 our of 178 (82% completion)  long passes for Spurs to feed Bale/Lennon runs in behind at speed. Fellaini doesn’t have this in his locker. Jags is ranked 8^th in the top flight in terms of long balls per game, with a 56% accuracy. Our first fast break goal of the season came last week – unsurprisingly Donovan and Anichebe were involved and with Drenthe looking ready for a prolonged run in the side we are starting to look more setup for counter attacking than we did earlier in the season

7.Territorial Dominance

 As the chart shows, only Liverpool spend a higher % of time in the opposition half than the Blues…this is a common feature of sides who squeeze the play using a high line.

8.Solid at the back

We don’t concede many shots as the below table shows – and concede the fewest amount of shots in the league at home. However, opposition conversion of chances against us is disproportionately high overall and especially so at home (14%) being the highest in the league.  Distin is statistically our best defender thus far, ranked 11^th in the league for clearances per game and 13^th in the league for interceptions per game.

9. Squad

 The squad is not balanced enough in terms of age. Compare the side that finished the 2009 Cup Final (average age 25) and that which finished to Bolton a few weeks ago (average age 29). This shows it’s an ageing squad…although it is does have raw youth on the periphery….but minimal in-between. The only outfield players in their prime would be Baines, Heitinga and Jags. It’s a similar problem Capello will face at this summer’s Euros when England will struggle to make it past the group stage. Cahill, Neville, Distin and Saha are all in the winter of their careers. All have been terrific servants to the club but out of the 4, only Distin is looking able to continue as a regular starter. The other 3 will (probably) be retained til the end of next season but are now only good enough as cover. Gibson will take the Arteta/Neville midfield slot whilst Coleman will take over as right back competition to Hibbert. Barkley has the tools to replace Cahill as a more natural trequartista however we have no in house replacement for Saha. With the lack of funds, Moyes will continue to try to ‘evolve’ and not ‘revolve’ to coin a well known DJ.

……The above is just some scribbles based on the previews/ reports from the games this season and is in no way presented as any kind of definitive assessment. Please feel free to chip in with further key themes I have missed….

Cheers,

EB

1.Selection & General Approach

Everton lined up with Landon Donovan as the closest in support to Saha with Tim Cahill pivoting between the roles of second forward and as part of a midfield trio with Fellaini and Gibson. We focused our play down Villa’s right flank, one reason why Drenthe was fairly anonymous apart from winning a couple of free kicks. Villa played with Bent through the middle and Agbonlahor left side but mostly attacked down our left flank with Albrighton.

2.Donovan Movement

Donovan was the game’s star turn and his positioning was interesting throughout. As noted in this article he is more than capable of interchanging between the roles of wide midfield and striker. This movement in the final third is something we have lacked all season.

Here Donovan (circled yellow) holds the wide right role when Villa are building an attack, providing support to Neville at fullback  with Cahill (circled blue) further forward alongside Saha

Here, the pair have swopped, with Cahill deeper in midfield and Donovan playing through the middle as a central striker.

3. Blues on the break

As noted a few weeks ago  here, the players Moyes now has available (eg Drenthe/ Donovan/Anichebe) could lead to a different approach. Due to the lack of pace we have had for the majority of the season our offensive strategy has been slow build up and try to keep sides penned inside their own half via a high line and pressure game. With the pace we now have we are able to use a plan B and play more counter attacking football.

Only Stoke and Blackburn have recorded a lower average possession this season than our hosts, yet Villa had more of the ball (53%) a 10% increase on their average of 43% with the Blues playing much deeper as the visual (left) shows. Anichebe’s goal was our first fast break goal of the season and showed the advantage of playing deeper as there was thus more space to attack at pace as Villa were often camped in our half in the second period.

4.Gibson Debut

Our new signing should prove to be a shrewd piece of business. Everybody is accustomed to his long range shooting, but perhaps less aware of his ability to pick a defence splitting pass. Ideally a midfield duo should consist of a runner and a passer – Fellaini is obviously a good runner whilst Rodwell has done ok this season on the ball although his best qualities are perhaps his energy and box to box running. Gibson gives a bit more in terms of possession from the middle of the park. His pass completion figure for 2010/11 was 84% whilst our team average for 2011/12 before yesterday was 76%. Compared to our existing centre mids, Fellaini this season averages 78% Rodwell 88% and Neville 80%. He was very positive in possession yesterday with 1 in 4 of his passes going forward with 2 through balls (as a team we average just 1 through ball per game) . His pass completion was 83%  - 8% higher than the team average on the day. Off the ball, his positioning afforded good protection to the back four –  making 4 interceptions – the most of any of our side.  This post from SC1 gives a more thorough breakdown of Gibson’s debut.

5.Final Thought

It was vital we got something from this given the back to back league defeats suffered against Bolton and Spurs. There was plenty of positives to take from the game;  namely the debut from Gibson and the positivity he showed in possession from the middle of the park, plus the improved movement in the final third provided by Donovan. A draw was probably a fair result on the balance of play given that we had the better of the first period and likewise Villa in the second.

1.Selection & Formation

Formation wise Villa usually line up in a 4-4-1-1 setup. The injured Emile Heskey definitely misses this one whilst Shay Given is doubtful as he continues his recovery from injury. Robbie Keane has arrived on loan from LA Galaxy and with him only being available for 6 league games as part of the loan agreement you would imagine he would start this one, probably at the expense of Stephen Ireland.

2.Tactics & Strategy

Only Stoke and Blackburn record a lower average possession figure than Villa (43%). Our hosts will look to play lots of direct ground passes to instigate counter attacks using the speed they have in wide areas. They are thus probably better set up to pick up points away from home when sides will attack them more and afford space in behind. Creativity wise, N’Zogbia and Petrov make the most key passes per game (1.6) with Agbonlahor (5) the most assists. Barry Bannan is a class act and arguably the squad’s most creative player but has been mostly out of favour since his drink driving incident.

3.Strengths

Villa has an abundance of pace in their ranks with the likes of Agbonlahor and N’Zogbia on the flanks and Bent through the middle. Last season at Goodison for example, Bent grabbed 2 goals with 1 (left) from his excellent movement which enabled him to evade Distin and engineer a one on one situation with Howard. In the recent home defeat to Liverpool the team completed a combined 68.13 miles – the highest mileage of any top flight side that weekend -so endurance is also a quality Villa possess.

4.Weaknesses

The club have suffered in recent years due to the management changes at the club. The direct play of Martin O’Neil was replaced with the more fluid game of Houllier and with McLeish now at the helm their squad represents the remnants of different footballing ideologies and they  have  a look of a team which doesn’t really have a defined identity yet. In a way their woes are not too dissimilar to ourselves with a key reason for Villa’s decline being significant player sales (Young, Milner, Downing) and not replacing them.

Villa have conceded over 50% of their goals this season from set plays – the highest percentage in the top flight – and this is quite surprising given the obvious aerial capability of Dunne and Collins.  Goals have been hard to come by for Villa also. They record just 3.1 shots on target per game which is the 2^nd lowest in the league. Not surprisingly then, they have lost their last 4 league games at Villa Park scoring just one goal in the process.

5.Toffee Approach

I would imagine Moyes will look to keep a deeper defensive line as he did against Spurs to deal with threat of Villa’s pace in counter attack situations. Going forward, it will be interesting to see if Drenthe will start this one – you would imagine so given that he is our most creative talent and should be fresh having only got a short run out on Wednesday night.  Injury wise, Distin is likely to miss out so you would imagine Duffy will come in for his first Everton start, unless Moyes chooses to switch Neville inside and bring Coleman in should the Irishman recover from injury. Jack Rodwell is probably the most likely to come back from injury with Jagielka, Osman & Hibbert definitely out. As noted in point 4, Villa has an Achilles heel at set pieces so Cahill, who has an excellent goal scoring record against Villa, may be retained.